Wretchard over at “The Belmont Club” has offered a compelling argument that we should all be paying attention to the situation in Pakistan and trying to get a sense of where this all might lead:
Realistically, once a power struggle erupts in Pakistan, it will take an Old Testament prophet to anticipate how it will finally play out. It’s a dilemma, and I will pose no answer to it. However that may be, the crisis may now be upon us if the Red Mosque incident has provided the match to the powderkeg.
The third dimension to the Pakistani crisis is international. President Musharraf is not the only President under siege. The Democrat Congress, aided by dissident Republicans, threatens to unilaterally pull US troops out of Iraq, though the details are not yet clear. President Bush, battered by unpopular domestic and international policies, is in a weak position while the Democrats have yet to articulate a war policy except one of withdrawal. Washington is governed by a man who can hardly turn the wheel of state and men who will not touch it, content to pelt the captain with tomatoes and old shoes.
And hovering over everything is one background factor. Pakistan is a nuclear-armed state. Its fall to Islamists or spiral downward into an indecisive chaos would, coupled with the three factors mentioned above, unleash a perfect storm. One can realistically imagine a situation where America is withdrawing from Iraq, Pakistan falling into chaos and war breaking out in Lebanon all at the same time while Washington politicians are preoccupied with crafting sound-bites for the 2008 elections. Of the three factors affecting the Pakistani crisis, the only one which can be addressed directly is to create a real consensus on fighting the War on Terror. To create a strong American strategic sense of what should be achieved and a real appreciation of the stakes involved. Otherwise a terrible crisis may break out upon the world with no strong hand in Washington to deal with it.
Hat tip to Kate.
